Monday, September 22, 2008

Psychologically Speaking...Get Excited about Real Estate!

Psychologically speaking, you could find your best opportunities to invest in Real Estate right now! We have been through a long 2 year barrage of negative news regarding different aspects of Real Estate. Now, everyone agrees that if they can not get a grip on the housing market, and foreclosure scenario, the financial impact will be far greater than you could imagine.

If you are looking in the North part of Atlanta, such as Forsyth, or Gwinnett, there are numerous new home opportunities to be taken advantage of.



Cycles happen. Consider the changes going on today that will change the psychological patterns around the real estate arena in a short time period to follow. The cycle has been down a long time, and changes are taking place to begin the healing process right now...with this, the real estate market will have a chance to improve before long!



1. The Government has taken over the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae organizations...the Government is doing this to allow these organizations the ability to re-group, and the money guaranteed through 2009 to hold in the money, and not have a mass exodus of investors. The other reason is to get the lending to be able to be obtained by more people, so we can begin to have a positive side to our current housing scenario. They are doing this through the end of 2009, which would indicate that the Government believes the housing market will have corrected enough to have this channel moving positively enough to hang on it's own.


2. Interest rates are very low for the overall trend of the mortgage rate life...30 year rates have been around 6% or lower for some time, and will probably stay in this ballpark for a while. While the Government does not reach out and physically control the mortgage rates, they can act around areas that will most likely keep this in check, and they will.


3. The credit crisis and financial crisis we are currently facing does not have a good chance of correcting unless the housing scenario is corrected...this is good for our industry as the Government must act as they are, or the problem will mushroom like a nuclear bomb. It may feel as though it has to you, but the reality is that it is small at this time and could leak into global matters if not corrected here.


4. Oil has come down from an all-time high of around $147/barrel...This will have an effect on gas and energy costs.


5. Gas has come down from it's all time high, and has only been trudging higher because of the recent hurricane scenario. The reality is that the oil refineries were not affected as much as feared, and once this is all in place, you should see gas continue it's fall in price to more acceptable levels. Let's be real, if the price of gas stays at $4/gallon, it will be difficult for any of the housing/credit world to correct.


6. Supply of homes is declining...The highest number of homes that was on the billboard around Atlanta was 110,000...this number has dropped to the high 90's...a TEN PERCENT drop! One of the indicators of where we are going is the supply of homes available. The number is dropping which would indicate the worst is where we are, or slightly behind us.


7. The ELECTION! It does not matter who ultimately gets in the White House (it does depending on which side you are on). The reality is that once it is done, it is done. We will face the future knowing what the facts and realities are, and a more positive psychological process will form vs. wondering what/who is going to be running the Country.

8. The Prime rate is incredibly low! Although the lending requirements are more stringent than ever, those that are in a position to buy with good credit are poised to buy more than if the rate were higher with the rest of the conditions we face!

9. Builders not building inventory...Banks are not lending to builders, or have tightened the reigns on those they are lending to, and that has limited the inventory levels which is good. This needed to happen. The supply will partially by default come in line...It really does not matter if it comes in line by default or purpose...Supply and Demand are going to meet at an acceptable level as long as Supply keeps coming down.

Number 9 leads me into CYCLES!

I am going to ask you to research the Savings and Loan debacle of the '80's. Why would I want to do this?

If you go back and look at history, you can usually predict the future by virtue of Cycles. History does have a way of repeating itself, and with the big companies that have fallen recently, along with the smaller institutions being regulated, I wanted to dig and learn more about the Savings and Loan issues. This had an impact on the housing industry, and financial industry too.

The Government did a big bailout very similarly to what they are doing now...this helped dig out of where they were at the time, and the coincidences are phenomenally close...it is actually a little eerie.


Don't worry...change is happening...yes, it will cost us money for the bailouts one way or the other, but the much more affordable option appears to be what they are doing now, vs waiting to see how much worse it can get on it's own...