Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Home sales in the U.S. probably climbed in January to the highest level since May 2010, adding to evidence the housing market is regaining its footing, economists said reports this week will show.
Combined purchases of new and existing houses rose to a 4.97 million annual rate from 4.92 million in December, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Claims for jobless benefits held near the lowest level since 2008, bolstering consumer confidence, other reports may show.
A strengthening job market, combined with record affordability driven by the drop in home prices and mortgage rates, will probably keep underpinning demand. Nonetheless, the Federal Reserve and Obama administration are striving to find ways to lend the industry additional assistance amid concern that mounting foreclosures will continue to hinder the recovery.
“Home sales have bottomed, and from here on, we should see a moderate pickup,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas in New York. “Hiring is improving slowly, so that’s helping.” More policy efforts are needed as “we still can’t rely on housing to recover on its own,” she said.
The National Association of Realtors will release data on existing house sales on Feb. 22. Purchases increased 0.9 percent to a 4.65 million annual rate, following a 4.61 million pace in December, according to the Bloomberg survey median.
Sales of new homes climbed to a 315,000 annual rate from 307,000 the prior month, the survey median showed. The report is due from the Commerce Department on Feb. 24. Last year marked a record low for the industry in data going back to 1963, as builders sold 302,000 homes, down 6.2 percent from 2010.
More Homebuilding
Reports last week indicated housing is on the mend. Builders broke ground on more homes than forecast in January, helped by warmer weather, and construction permits also advanced. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of builder confidence climbed in February to the highest level since May 2007.
Beazer Homes USA Inc. reported that orders jumped 36 percent in the final three months of 2011 from a year earlier, and closings on new houses surged more than 60 percent. The Atlanta-based builder said it expects to sell more properties this year than last.
“While our visibility into the economic conditions for the remainder of the year is limited, I believe that we will benefit from a gradually improving housing market,” Allan Merrill, chief executive officer, said on an earnings call on Feb. 2.
Build Shares
Investors also are upbeat about prospects. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Homebuilding Index has advanced 21 percent since the end of last year, outpacing an 8.2 percent gain in the broader S&P 500.
Policy makers are working to help distressed homeowners. The top five mortgage lenders this month reached a $25 billion settlement with 49 states and the U.S. government over the use of faulty paperwork in foreclosures.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank’s efforts to spur growth are being blunted by impediments to mortgage lending, and called for more steps to heal the housing industry.
“The economic recovery has been disappointing in part because U.S. housing markets remain out of balance,” Bernanke told homebuilders on Feb. 10 in Orlando, Florida. “We need to continue to develop and implement policies that will help the housing sector get back on its feet.”
One asset has been the improvement in employment. The jobless rate fell in January to a three-year low of 8.3 percent, and payrolls rose by 243,000 workers.
Fewer Firings
Firings are also waning, Labor Department figures may show on Feb. 23. Initial jobless claims rose last week to 355,000 after reaching a four-year low the prior week, according to the median forecast in the Bloomberg survey.
Greater affordability is also supporting home demand. The National Association of Realtors’ measure of whether households earning the median income can afford a median-priced house at current interest rates reached a record in the last three months of 2011.
Among other reports this week, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment rose to 72.8 in February from a preliminary reading of 72.5, economists in the Bloomberg survey predicted. The data will be released Feb. 24.
--With assistance from Chris Middleton in Washington. Editors: Carlos Torres, Vince Golle
To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz in Washington at cwellisz@bloomberg.net
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Selling Your House? 5 Reasons To Do It NOW!
The conventional wisdom when selling a home has always been to wait until the ‘Spring Buying Season’. Over the years, that has seemed to make sense and is now accepted as a good strategy for those who want to sell their house and receive the best possible price. This real estate market has shattered many previously held beliefs. The wisdom of waiting for a spring market is another belief that is about to fall. Here are five reasons why?
1.) Interest Rates Are On the Rise
Interest rates have spiked up rather dramatically over the last ninety days and are now over 5%. Initially, an increase in rates has a positive effect on the market as it forces buyers off the fence. However, it also eats into a buyer’s purchasing power. As rates increase, the mortgage amount a buyer qualifies for decreases. This will eventually have a negative impact on prices.
2.) Your Dream Home Will Never Be Cheaper
If your family goal is to sell your current house and take advantage of the fabulous selection of properties currently available to buy the home of your dreams, DO IT NOW! Prices will continue to soften in most markets. However, if you are buying, COST should be more important than PRICE. Cost can be dramatically impacted by rising mortgage interest rates. Do the math and decide if now is the time.
3.) Buyers Are Out Early
There is mounting evidence that buyers are coming out earlier this year. A belief that now is a good time to buy coupled with the increase in interest rates has started the buying season early.
Pete Flint, CEO of Trulia:
“We’re seeing a national resurgence of buyer and seller activity on Trulia.com. In January alone, we experienced an unprecedented level of site traffic including 11 million unique visitors – which is more than 70 percent year-over-year growth. We’ve are now experiencing 100,000 property views per minute.”
The National Association of Realtors just reported that the number of house sales increased 12.9% over last month.
4.) Inventory Increases Every Spring
Every year there is an increase of inventory which comes to market as we approach the spring. Here is the number of listings available for sale in 2010.
February – 3,531,000
March – 3,626,000
April – 4,029,000
We believe there will be an increase in these numbers in 2011 as there is a pent-up selling demand created by the weak market of the last few years. You won’t have to worry about this increasing competition if you sell now.
5.) We Are in the Eye of the Foreclosure Storm
While banks are trying to rectify their foreclosure procedures, there is a large supply of discounted properties which has been delayed coming to market. This inventory will be released sometime in the next few months. Foreclosures sell on average at a 41% discount. When released they will be competing with your house for the buyers in the marketplace. If you are looking to sell in 2011, you want to sell before this inventory becomes your competition.
CNN Money quoted the leadership Of RealtyTrac on this issue:
“We’ve now seen three straight months with fewer than 300,000 properties receiving foreclosure filings, following 20 straight months where the total exceeded 300,000,” said James Saccacio, CEO of RealtyTrac.
“Unfortunately,” he added, “This is less a sign of a robust housing recovery and more a sign that lenders have become bogged down in reviewing procedures, resubmitting paperwork and formulating legal arguments related to accusations of improper foreclosure processing.”
“We expect a spike in the first quarter,” said Rick Sharga, a RealtyTrac spokesman.
Bottom Line
These are five strong reasons to sell now instead of waiting until later in the year. Sit down with a local real estate professional today and decide the best options for you and your family.
Material by THE KCM CREW
1.) Interest Rates Are On the Rise
Interest rates have spiked up rather dramatically over the last ninety days and are now over 5%. Initially, an increase in rates has a positive effect on the market as it forces buyers off the fence. However, it also eats into a buyer’s purchasing power. As rates increase, the mortgage amount a buyer qualifies for decreases. This will eventually have a negative impact on prices.
2.) Your Dream Home Will Never Be Cheaper
If your family goal is to sell your current house and take advantage of the fabulous selection of properties currently available to buy the home of your dreams, DO IT NOW! Prices will continue to soften in most markets. However, if you are buying, COST should be more important than PRICE. Cost can be dramatically impacted by rising mortgage interest rates. Do the math and decide if now is the time.
3.) Buyers Are Out Early
There is mounting evidence that buyers are coming out earlier this year. A belief that now is a good time to buy coupled with the increase in interest rates has started the buying season early.
Pete Flint, CEO of Trulia:
“We’re seeing a national resurgence of buyer and seller activity on Trulia.com. In January alone, we experienced an unprecedented level of site traffic including 11 million unique visitors – which is more than 70 percent year-over-year growth. We’ve are now experiencing 100,000 property views per minute.”
The National Association of Realtors just reported that the number of house sales increased 12.9% over last month.
4.) Inventory Increases Every Spring
Every year there is an increase of inventory which comes to market as we approach the spring. Here is the number of listings available for sale in 2010.
February – 3,531,000
March – 3,626,000
April – 4,029,000
We believe there will be an increase in these numbers in 2011 as there is a pent-up selling demand created by the weak market of the last few years. You won’t have to worry about this increasing competition if you sell now.
5.) We Are in the Eye of the Foreclosure Storm
While banks are trying to rectify their foreclosure procedures, there is a large supply of discounted properties which has been delayed coming to market. This inventory will be released sometime in the next few months. Foreclosures sell on average at a 41% discount. When released they will be competing with your house for the buyers in the marketplace. If you are looking to sell in 2011, you want to sell before this inventory becomes your competition.
CNN Money quoted the leadership Of RealtyTrac on this issue:
“We’ve now seen three straight months with fewer than 300,000 properties receiving foreclosure filings, following 20 straight months where the total exceeded 300,000,” said James Saccacio, CEO of RealtyTrac.
“Unfortunately,” he added, “This is less a sign of a robust housing recovery and more a sign that lenders have become bogged down in reviewing procedures, resubmitting paperwork and formulating legal arguments related to accusations of improper foreclosure processing.”
“We expect a spike in the first quarter,” said Rick Sharga, a RealtyTrac spokesman.
Bottom Line
These are five strong reasons to sell now instead of waiting until later in the year. Sit down with a local real estate professional today and decide the best options for you and your family.
Material by THE KCM CREW
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
House Prices: The Impact of Supply and Demand
For some time now, we have attempted to shed light on the fact that pricing in today’s real estate market will be determined by the concept of ‘supply and demand’. If supply continues to increase and demand softens (or even remains constant) prices will continue to fall. Even the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has acknowledged this to be true.
The supply of inventory in the real estate industry is defined by the current months’ supply of homes that is available for sale. There are no steadfast rules that will apply to every category of housing. However, here is a great guideline by which to go:
1-4 months’ supply creates a sellers’ market where there are not enough homes to satisfy buyer demand. Appreciation is guaranteed.
5-6 months’ supply creates a balanced market where historically home values appreciate at a rate a little greater than inflation.
7-8 months’ supply creates a buyers’ market where the number of homes for sale exceeds the demand. Depreciation follows.
Where do we stand today?
According to NAR’s most recent Existing Sales Report, there is currently a 10.5 months’ supply of homes for sale. We can see, based on the guideline above, we are in a buyers’ market and that prices will continue to soften. The other statistic we must watch is the number of months’ of shadow inventory which will be coming to market.
CoreLogic just released their November report (which covers August). They estimate shadow inventory:
… by calculating the number of properties that are seriously delinquent (90 days or more), in foreclosure and real estate owned (REO) by lenders and that are not currently listed on multiple listing services (MLSs). Shadow inventory is typically not included in the official metrics of unsold inventory.
The report showed that shadow inventory jumped more than 10% in the last year, pushing total unsold inventory to 2.1 million houses.
That represents another 8 months of supply.
The Wall Street Journal reported that some analysts have said CoreLogic estimates look rather low.
Laurie Goodman, senior managing director at Amherst Securities Group, has warned that as many as seven million homes could end up in banks hands unless more aggressive modification regimes are put in place.
Barclays estimates that another 3.76 million homes are either in the foreclosure process or are at least 90 days delinquent but not yet in foreclosure.
Bottom Line
Most industry experts are projecting just that – an additional fall in prices of between 5-20%. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic commented:
“The weak demand for housing is significantly increasing the risk of further price declines in the housing market. This is being exacerbated by a significant and growing shadow inventory that is likely to persist for some time due to the highly extended time-to-liquidation that servicers are currently experiencing.”
If you are thinking of selling, meet with a local real estate professional immediately. In most parts of the country, selling sooner may be better than later.
The supply of inventory in the real estate industry is defined by the current months’ supply of homes that is available for sale. There are no steadfast rules that will apply to every category of housing. However, here is a great guideline by which to go:
1-4 months’ supply creates a sellers’ market where there are not enough homes to satisfy buyer demand. Appreciation is guaranteed.
5-6 months’ supply creates a balanced market where historically home values appreciate at a rate a little greater than inflation.
7-8 months’ supply creates a buyers’ market where the number of homes for sale exceeds the demand. Depreciation follows.
Where do we stand today?
According to NAR’s most recent Existing Sales Report, there is currently a 10.5 months’ supply of homes for sale. We can see, based on the guideline above, we are in a buyers’ market and that prices will continue to soften. The other statistic we must watch is the number of months’ of shadow inventory which will be coming to market.
CoreLogic just released their November report (which covers August). They estimate shadow inventory:
… by calculating the number of properties that are seriously delinquent (90 days or more), in foreclosure and real estate owned (REO) by lenders and that are not currently listed on multiple listing services (MLSs). Shadow inventory is typically not included in the official metrics of unsold inventory.
The report showed that shadow inventory jumped more than 10% in the last year, pushing total unsold inventory to 2.1 million houses.
That represents another 8 months of supply.
The Wall Street Journal reported that some analysts have said CoreLogic estimates look rather low.
Laurie Goodman, senior managing director at Amherst Securities Group, has warned that as many as seven million homes could end up in banks hands unless more aggressive modification regimes are put in place.
Barclays estimates that another 3.76 million homes are either in the foreclosure process or are at least 90 days delinquent but not yet in foreclosure.
Bottom Line
Most industry experts are projecting just that – an additional fall in prices of between 5-20%. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic commented:
“The weak demand for housing is significantly increasing the risk of further price declines in the housing market. This is being exacerbated by a significant and growing shadow inventory that is likely to persist for some time due to the highly extended time-to-liquidation that servicers are currently experiencing.”
If you are thinking of selling, meet with a local real estate professional immediately. In most parts of the country, selling sooner may be better than later.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Five Principles of Home Staging
Home staging is economical and a well-proven benefit to Realtors and home owners alike. Here are some basic staging principles every home seller can use.
Become a Seller, Not a Dweller
Homeowners must make the mental shift necessary to become Sellers, not Dwellers. It is only then sellers are able to realize they own a commodity to be sold and no longer their home. The way we live in our homes is different than the way we sell our homes. With this mental shift in place, the next step in the process may begin.
Clean and De-clutter
De-cluttering is the first principle used in home staging. Clutter is defined as those items in a room that are not necessary for its function or beauty. Clutter can be too many books, knickknacks, or accessories. With staging, only key accessories and furniture remain. The property will immediately appear more spacious and well cared for.
Here are some tips to keep in mind as it applies to de-cluttering:
1.A buyer wants to purchase a move-in ready home. A house that is not clean implies deferred maintenance.2.A buyer is purchasing square footage. Clear the clutter to create the impression of more space.3.Let the light in; buyers are drawn to open, airy spaces.
Appeal to the Masses
With the de-cluttering process accomplished, the next phase is depersonalizing. The buyer will want to mentally personalize it and imagine living in the house when it becomes theirs. This includes using neutral tones throughout as well as general updates which will appeal to the largest segment of potential buyers.
Realtors no longer have the almost impossible task of telling homeowners their faux finished pink bathroom really needs a neutral tone of paint (put in before and after of pink bathroom) or their beloved collection of gargoyles will turn off potential buyers.
If You Can't See It, You Can't Sell It.
Curb appeal is everything. It's the first impression a potential buyer gets of the home. Remember, if you can’t see it you can’t sell it. The easiest and best way to determine what needs to be done to the outside of the home and the lawn is to walk across the street. Look objectively at what the home looks like from that vantage point. Then, take the following curb appeal test:
1. Are the gutters clean and in good repair?
2. How does the driveway look?
3. Do the shrubs need pruning?
4. Do the trees need trimming?
5. How do the flower beds look?
6. Is the walkway leading to the house inviting?
7. Does the lawn look clean and neat?
8. Are the house numbers clearly visible?
9. Does the entryway and front door make a great first impression?
10. Are toys, tools, hoses and any other distracting items put away?
Amie Hebert Chaney, a Home Staging Expert (HSE), says Home Staging is the art of preparing a home for market to give the best possible first impression to potential buyers, resulting in a quicker sale and higher profit. The intent behind home staging is for potential buyers to be able to see the home as theirs.
It is only after answering and addressing the above curb appeal issues that the seller will have passed the “curb appeal test.”
Maximize Strong Points; Minimize Shortcomings
Finally, it’s important to show off the home’s best features, while hiding its flaws. Showcase focal points such as fireplaces, wood floors, and expansive views and divert attention away from less attractive features by creating alternate interest.
If a home seller is willing to follow these simple steps – clean and de-clutter, depersonalize, increase curb appeal and maximize the home’s strong points - they greatly improve the chances of selling their home quicker and for top dollar.
Become a Seller, Not a Dweller
Homeowners must make the mental shift necessary to become Sellers, not Dwellers. It is only then sellers are able to realize they own a commodity to be sold and no longer their home. The way we live in our homes is different than the way we sell our homes. With this mental shift in place, the next step in the process may begin.
Clean and De-clutter
De-cluttering is the first principle used in home staging. Clutter is defined as those items in a room that are not necessary for its function or beauty. Clutter can be too many books, knickknacks, or accessories. With staging, only key accessories and furniture remain. The property will immediately appear more spacious and well cared for.
Here are some tips to keep in mind as it applies to de-cluttering:
1.A buyer wants to purchase a move-in ready home. A house that is not clean implies deferred maintenance.2.A buyer is purchasing square footage. Clear the clutter to create the impression of more space.3.Let the light in; buyers are drawn to open, airy spaces.
Appeal to the Masses
With the de-cluttering process accomplished, the next phase is depersonalizing. The buyer will want to mentally personalize it and imagine living in the house when it becomes theirs. This includes using neutral tones throughout as well as general updates which will appeal to the largest segment of potential buyers.
Realtors no longer have the almost impossible task of telling homeowners their faux finished pink bathroom really needs a neutral tone of paint (put in before and after of pink bathroom) or their beloved collection of gargoyles will turn off potential buyers.
If You Can't See It, You Can't Sell It.
Curb appeal is everything. It's the first impression a potential buyer gets of the home. Remember, if you can’t see it you can’t sell it. The easiest and best way to determine what needs to be done to the outside of the home and the lawn is to walk across the street. Look objectively at what the home looks like from that vantage point. Then, take the following curb appeal test:
1. Are the gutters clean and in good repair?
2. How does the driveway look?
3. Do the shrubs need pruning?
4. Do the trees need trimming?
5. How do the flower beds look?
6. Is the walkway leading to the house inviting?
7. Does the lawn look clean and neat?
8. Are the house numbers clearly visible?
9. Does the entryway and front door make a great first impression?
10. Are toys, tools, hoses and any other distracting items put away?
Amie Hebert Chaney, a Home Staging Expert (HSE), says Home Staging is the art of preparing a home for market to give the best possible first impression to potential buyers, resulting in a quicker sale and higher profit. The intent behind home staging is for potential buyers to be able to see the home as theirs.
It is only after answering and addressing the above curb appeal issues that the seller will have passed the “curb appeal test.”
Maximize Strong Points; Minimize Shortcomings
Finally, it’s important to show off the home’s best features, while hiding its flaws. Showcase focal points such as fireplaces, wood floors, and expansive views and divert attention away from less attractive features by creating alternate interest.
If a home seller is willing to follow these simple steps – clean and de-clutter, depersonalize, increase curb appeal and maximize the home’s strong points - they greatly improve the chances of selling their home quicker and for top dollar.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Spruce up your home with these quick tips!
Maybe I’ve been watching too many “reality house-fixer” shows, but it seems like all those folks have unlimited budgets and unlimited time, and for some of us, it’s just not like that. You can easily spend $15,000 to $20,000 on things like re-plumbing and rewiring and end up living in the same house you had before you spent the money.
1. Paint everything in sight. Take down dated wallpaper and try to choose lighter colors. They make the rooms appear larger.
The odor and look of fresh paint is undeniably associated in our brains with the concept of clean. And that’s a great way to start your makeover. You can take on the task yourself or hire someone.
While painting a whole house by yourself can be a large project, you can break it into smaller pieces, maybe one room at a time. The smell of fresh paint is a real morale booster among buyers.
2. Clean the carpets throughout the house. If you have hardwood floors, get them cleaned and waxed.
No, it’s not quite the same as new, but the cost to have this maintenance done is likely less than a couple of hundred bucks. Again, you’ll see immediate improvement in the floor covering you have, and the results are gratifying.
Yes, you can rent a unit from the hardware store for $50, but it’s backbreaking work, and the truck-mounted equipment seems to provide the best results.
One hint: Ignore offers of upgrades like a layer of protective chemical for just another hundred bucks.
3. Wash all your windows, inside and out. Over the years, windows get dirty, and block out some of the light that should be coming into your house. And it’s just that light that makes you feel that a room is “bright and cheerful.” You’ll notice a difference right away.
These suggestions won’t solve systemic shortcomings in your house. But they will make it more pleasant to live in and more attractive to any visitor, whether a prospective buyer or not.
By John Adams - AJC
1. Paint everything in sight. Take down dated wallpaper and try to choose lighter colors. They make the rooms appear larger.
The odor and look of fresh paint is undeniably associated in our brains with the concept of clean. And that’s a great way to start your makeover. You can take on the task yourself or hire someone.
While painting a whole house by yourself can be a large project, you can break it into smaller pieces, maybe one room at a time. The smell of fresh paint is a real morale booster among buyers.
2. Clean the carpets throughout the house. If you have hardwood floors, get them cleaned and waxed.
No, it’s not quite the same as new, but the cost to have this maintenance done is likely less than a couple of hundred bucks. Again, you’ll see immediate improvement in the floor covering you have, and the results are gratifying.
Yes, you can rent a unit from the hardware store for $50, but it’s backbreaking work, and the truck-mounted equipment seems to provide the best results.
One hint: Ignore offers of upgrades like a layer of protective chemical for just another hundred bucks.
3. Wash all your windows, inside and out. Over the years, windows get dirty, and block out some of the light that should be coming into your house. And it’s just that light that makes you feel that a room is “bright and cheerful.” You’ll notice a difference right away.
These suggestions won’t solve systemic shortcomings in your house. But they will make it more pleasant to live in and more attractive to any visitor, whether a prospective buyer or not.
By John Adams - AJC
Thursday, March 4, 2010
What Do We See In The Shadows?
The economy is on the road to financial recovery. It will be a long and hard road, but we are on our way. There are many obstacles that could cause us to break down on this road. None is more important than the concept of "shadow inventory." What is that? These are homes which the banks are not foreclosing upon because they are trying to work out solutions with present homeowners or frankly they don’t want to flood the markets all at once and depress prices. How many homes are casting a shadow over the markets? Projections vary, but suffice to say that there are several million homes that will be foreclosed upon in the next two years. That is a lot of homes. It is also good news that at least one forecaster says that investor demand is so strong that home prices will not be affected by these homes coming upon the markets.
We keep saying this and it bears repeating. Real estate led us into recession and it must lead us into recovery. There are many factors that can help "soak" up shadow inventory. The weak dollar is increasing demand from foreign investors. The tax credit is bringing more first time buyers into the market and now move-up buyers as well. Low rates are keeping homes affordable, especially when compared to renting in many markets. Government efforts at modifications are also expected to keep many in their homes. Even builders are helping by bringing less homes to the market. Not one of these is by itself enough to absorb several million homes. But if we put all these factors together, it very well may happen as the John Burns Real Estate Consulting Company has indicated. Keep in mind that all the while the population of this Nation is rising. This means that sometime in the future, there will be growth in the real estate market and our economy. In the meantime, we will navigate the long and winding road.
We keep saying this and it bears repeating. Real estate led us into recession and it must lead us into recovery. There are many factors that can help "soak" up shadow inventory. The weak dollar is increasing demand from foreign investors. The tax credit is bringing more first time buyers into the market and now move-up buyers as well. Low rates are keeping homes affordable, especially when compared to renting in many markets. Government efforts at modifications are also expected to keep many in their homes. Even builders are helping by bringing less homes to the market. Not one of these is by itself enough to absorb several million homes. But if we put all these factors together, it very well may happen as the John Burns Real Estate Consulting Company has indicated. Keep in mind that all the while the population of this Nation is rising. This means that sometime in the future, there will be growth in the real estate market and our economy. In the meantime, we will navigate the long and winding road.
Monday, December 7, 2009
New Push on Mortgage Relief
In the latest move to bolster its $75 billion foreclosure-prevention plan, the Obama administration on Monday will outline new efforts designed to increase the number of borrowers who receive mortgage relief.
The Treasury Department on Monday will announce plans to appoint officials to monitor the actions of the largest mortgage servicing companies on a daily basis. It also will announce it is requiring mortgage companies to develop and report to the administration their plans to increase the number of completed modifications, a Treasury spokeswoman said.
While more than 650,000 borrowers have been given trial mortgage modifications under the plan, few borrowers have received permanent modifications. Many borrowers complain that it is difficult to get a permanent fix even once they have made trial payments; some have been required to send in duplicate paperwork or even ended up further behind on their mortgage payments.
The Treasury won't release the number of completed modifications until December, but the spokeswoman said it is in the "tens of thousands." It is too early to know what portion of trial modifications will become permanent, she added.
Based on their initial experience, some mortgage executives expect 25% to 35% of borrowers enrolled in the trial program to qualify for final modifications.
The stakes for the economy of a successful modification program are high. To stop further home price declines, some economists argue that the share of home sales that are foreclosures and other distressed properties must remain stable. Foreclosure sales fell this year because of moratoriums and stepped-up modification efforts, helping stabilize home prices.
The Obama administration program provides financial incentives for mortgage companies and investors to reduce loan payments to affordable levels for troubled borrowers. Borrowers first make reduced payments under a trial program. To receive a permanent modification, borrowers must make three payments during the trial period and provide a hardship affidavit and other documents.
For borrowers who do receive a trial modification, few are becoming permanent. Some borrowers can't make the required payments during the trial period, mortgage companies say, often because the reduced payment still isn't low enough or they have suffered another financial setback.
In other cases, borrowers in the trial program aren't providing a hardship affidavit and other necessary documents or the paperwork doesn't match the information provided verbally. In still other cases, the loan may not pass a "net present value test" used to determine whether a modification is less costly to the lender or investor than a foreclosure.
Meanwhile, the number of borrowers falling behind on their loan payments continues to outpace the administration's efforts to help them. Roughly 1.56 million loans that were current in March were at least 60 days past due in October, according to LPS Applied Analytics. That's more than double the number of trial modifications.
Mortgage companies have stepped up efforts to collect documents, but many borrowers say firms are frequently disorganized and ask repeatedly for the same paperwork or offer confusing information.
John Fitzpatrick, a home builder in Ohio, made his first $1,464 trial payment in June. Three months later, Bank of America Corp. sent him a statement indicating he should pay $2,038, his monthly payment before the trial modification. Mr. Fitzpatrick said he has continued to make the lower payment on the advice of his attorney. Mr. Fitzpatrick said he believes he has provided all the required documents; in mid-November, he sent in another set of papers at the mortgage company's request. A Bank of America spokesman said the statement with the higher payments "was sent out in error."
Some borrowers are ending up in worse shape after seeking help under the government program. Jennifer and James Pugliese, of Scranton, Pa., were struggling, but still current on their mortgage when Litton Loan Servicing offered them a trial modification that reduced their loan payments by nearly 50% to $758. But after making successful trial payments, the couple was turned down for a final modification. Because the trial payments are considered partial payments if the modification fails, the Puglieses are now more than $5,000 behind on their mortgage; their credit score dropped after Litton reported to the credit bureau that the couple had entered the Obama program.
"There is no way we can recover at this point," said Ms. Pugliese, who received a foreclosure notice last week. "We are pretty much resolved to losing the house or filing for bankruptcy." When their loan payments were cut, the couple used the extra cash to pay other debts, she says.
A spokeswoman for Litton, a unit of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said: "Litton is following the program's guidelines for eligibility qualifications, modification trial periods and credit reporting. Loans that do not pass the net present value test are not eligible" for a modification under the Obama program.
-WSJ (Ruth Simon)
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